Trump threatens 5% tariff on Mexico over water treaty shortfall

President Trump warned that the United States will impose a 5% tariff on Mexico if it does not release water owed under a decades-old bilateral treaty, saying the shortfall is harming agricultural producers in Texas.

In a social media post on Monday, Trump said Mexico “continues to violate” the 1944 water treaty by failing to deliver required volumes from the Rio Grande. He said Mexico must release 200,000 acre-feet before December 31, adding that U.S. officials estimate more than 800,000 acre-feet remain outstanding from the current five-year cycle.

“That is why I have authorized documentation to impose a 5% Tariff on Mexico if this water isn’t released, IMMEDIATELY,” Trump added. “The longer Mexico takes to release the water, the more our Farmers are hurt.”

The treaty governing shared river systems requires the United States to provide Mexico with a yearly allocation from the Colorado River, while Mexico must deliver water from the Rio Grande to the United States over five-year periods.

Compliance is supervised by the International Boundary and Water Commission. The current cycle, which ends this year, is expected to close with a substantial deficit on Mexico’s side, according to U.S. officials.

Severe drought across northern Mexico and the U.S. border region has reduced river flows and intensified pressure on both countries. Farmers in Mexican states along the border have resisted releasing additional water, arguing that local supplies are already insufficient.

Mexico recently enacted reforms to its National Water Law, prioritizing domestic use during shortages and expanding state oversight of water allocation. While the changes do not alter Mexico’s international obligations, they have added to internal debates about how to manage limited supplies during prolonged drought.