forecast<\/a>, released Thursday, says current weak La Ni\u00f1a conditions are expected to transition to El Ni\u00f1o in the coming months, with the potential for a moderate to strong El Ni\u00f1o during the peak of hurricane season. <\/p>\n\n\n\nCSU said it expects El Ni\u00f1o to be the dominant factor this year, increasing vertical wind shear over the tropical Atlantic and making conditions less favorable for storm development.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Colorado State also forecasts 90 units of accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE, a measure used to estimate the combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes over a season. That is below the 1991-2020 average of 123.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The university said its forecast is based on information available through March and indicates activity somewhat below the 1991-2020 average. Average seasons produce 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes and 3.2 major hurricanes, which are Category 3, 4 or 5 storms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
CSU put the probability of at least one major hurricane making landfall anywhere along the continental U.S. coastline at 32%, below the historical average of 43%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It gave the U.S. East Coast, including peninsula Florida, a 15% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane landfall, compared with a historical average of 21%. For the Gulf Coast, from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville, Texas, the forecast gives a 20% chance, below the historical average of 27%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The forecast also gives a 35% chance of at least one major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean, compared with a historical average of 47%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
CSU warned that even a below-normal season can still produce destructive landfalls. \u201cIt only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season,\u201d the university said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30. NOAA, which issues the U.S. government\u2019s official seasonal outlook, is scheduled to release its separate forecast in May.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Colorado State University is forecasting a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, calling for 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. The outlook also projects below-average odds of a major hurricane making landfall in the United States and the Caribbean. The forecast, released Thursday, says current weak La Ni\u00f1a conditions are expected to transition […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":59541,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[4394,4393,2845,151],"class_list":["post-65921","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-usnews","tag-2026-atlantic-hurricane-season","tag-colorado-state-university-csu","tag-tropical-cyclones","tag-united-states"],"yoast_head":"\n
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