Tropical wave in Atlantic has 60% chance of developing near Caribbean

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is tracking a tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic that could gradually develop into a tropical depression later this week.

As of Monday afternoon, the system was producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms while moving west to west-northwest at about 20 mph. Forecasters said environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development as the disturbance crosses the central Atlantic.

The tropical wave is expected to approach the vicinity of the Leeward Islands toward the end of the week. The NHC gave the system a 60 percent chance of formation within seven days, including a 10 percent chance of development within the next 48 hours.

“This is a reminder as we move into peak hurricane season, that now is an opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place,” the NHC said in a social media post about the potential system.

Tropical waves emerging from the coast of Africa are common during August, which marks the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Warm sea surface temperatures, moist air, and favorable wind patterns in the central and eastern Atlantic often provide the right conditions for storms to organize and strengthen as they move westward.

This region, often referred to as the “main development region,” has produced some of the most significant storms to impact the Caribbean, the United States, and the wider Atlantic basin.