NOAA forecasts above-average 2025 Atlantic hurricane season

Forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are predicting an above-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic basin this year, citing a combination of favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions.

In its official seasonal outlook for 2025, NOAA estimates a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.

Forecasters project between 13 to 19 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those, 6 to 10 are expected to become hurricanes, including 3 to 5 that could reach major hurricane strength—Category 3 or higher—with winds of at least 111 mph. NOAA expressed 70% confidence in these predictions.

The outlook was influenced by several climate factors known to favor hurricane formation, including warmer-than-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear, El Niño-Southern Oscillation neutral conditions in the Pacific, and the possibility of a stronger West African Monsoon.

“The high activity era in the Atlantic Basin continues,” NOAA noted, following above-average seasons in 2023 and 2024.

“As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities,” Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm said.

“This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens,” Ken Graham, Director of the National Weather Service added.