NOAA keeps above-normal forecast for Atlantic hurricane season

NOAA is maintaining its forecast for an above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season as atmospheric and oceanic conditions continue to favor increased storm activity, the agency announced.

Forecasters from NOAA’s National Weather Service now expect 13 to 18 named storms for the season, with 5 to 9 hurricanes, including 2 to 5 major hurricanes. These numbers are, on average, one storm lower in each category compared to the previous outlook, but remain above average for the Atlantic season.

In a typical Atlantic hurricane season, there are 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

The updated outlook covers the full season from June 1 through November 30 and includes the four named storms that have already formed.

“So far, the season has produced four named tropical storms and no hurricanes. Tropical Storm Chantal made the first U.S. landfall of the season and brought high winds and deadly flooding to the Carolinas during the Independence Day holiday weekend,” NOAA said.

The chance of above-normal activity stands at 50%, with a 35% chance of a near-normal season and a 15% chance of a below-normal season, according to NOAA. This updated forecast is similar to the agency’s initial outlook in May.

Elevated tropical storm activity is expected in the Atlantic basin due to factors including warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, and an active West African Monsoon. ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña is influencing the season’s storm activity.

“As we enter the second half of the season, this updated hurricane outlook serves as a call to action to prepare now, in advance, rather than delay until a warning is issued,” said acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm.

NOAA also noted that the outlook for a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season, with 12 to 18 named storms, remains on track, though the region saw a rapid start with nine named storms. The Central Pacific outlook is unchanged, calling for 1 to 4 named storms.