Tropical storm watches issued for northern Leeward Islands as Erin approaches

Tropical storm watches have been issued for portions of the northern Leeward Islands as Tropical Storm Erin moves west-northwest across the Atlantic, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the area beginning Saturday as the storm’s core passes north of the islands. Watches have been issued for Anguilla and Barbuda, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy, Sint Maarten and Saba and St. Eustatius.

The NHC said tropical storm conditions could also occur in parts of the U.S., Puerto Rico and the British Virgin Islands later in the weekend, with additional watches possible tonight or Friday.

Heavy rainfall across the northernmost Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and southern and eastern Puerto Rico could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding, as well as landslides or mudslides from this weekend into early next week.

As of 5 p.m. ET Thursday, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 58 mph and was producing strong convection near its center. Forecasters expect Erin to strengthen and become a hurricane within 24 hours as it moves over warmer waters in an environment of light-to-moderate easterly wind shear.

The storm is moving west-northwest at 17 mph under the influence of a subtropical ridge and is forecast to continue in that general direction for the next three days before turning northwest or north-northwest.

The NHC said there is still significant uncertainty in the track beyond that point, and potential impacts to the Bahamas, the U.S. East Coast, and Bermuda remain unclear, though the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents in the western Atlantic is increasing.