Strong tornadoes possible from South Carolina to Maryland on Monday

Scattered to widespread severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic early next week, with the potential for strong tornadoes and significant damaging winds from South Carolina to Maryland, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).

The NWS’ Storm Prediction Center said Monday’s threat carries an Enhanced Risk, level 3 of 5, from South Carolina into southern Pennsylvania. Forecasters said the greatest severe weather threat appears likely to center on the eastern Piedmont and coastal plain from South Carolina to Maryland around midday into the afternoon.

Forecasters said parts of the region could be upgraded in later outlooks to a Moderate Risk, level 4 of 5. If issued, it would be the first Moderate Risk so far this year, a designation used for higher-end severe weather setups that can include widespread damaging storms and strong tornadoes.

Forecasters said a large storm system moving east out of the Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee valleys will push a cold front across the region on Monday, drawing rich Gulf and Atlantic moisture northward ahead of it.

Storms may already be underway by Monday morning, with additional intensification expected through the day as heating increases and conditions become more favorable for rotating storms.

The Storm Prediction Center said the setup may support a mix of broken supercells and line-embedded supercells, a combination that could produce strong tornadoes and significant damaging winds.

Forecasters said the exact severity will depend in part on how much heating develops at the surface and how morning storms evolve ahead of the main front.

The agency also warned that severe weather is expected to begin farther west on Sunday, when scattered to widespread damaging winds and tornadoes are forecast from parts of the South-Central United States into the Midwest and Ohio Valley.

The greatest threat Sunday evening appears to be from the Ark-La-Miss region into the Lower Ohio Valley, where forecasters said a couple of strong tornadoes and widespread damaging wind swaths are possible before the storm system shifts east overnight.

By early Monday, that threat is expected to expand toward the Gulf Coast and southern Appalachians before the more focused severe weather risk develops farther east from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic.