Gulf system could become tropical depression near Florida

A developing weather system in the eastern Gulf could become a tropical depression near Florida while bringing heavy rain to parts of the Southeast, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Satellite images and surface observations showed a broad area of low pressure forming Saturday, but its winds remained light and its showers and thunderstorms were disorganized.

Gradual development is possible as the system, designated AL91, moves slowly north or north-northwest over the next few days. Heavy rain is expected along Florida’s Gulf Coast, southern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.

The system has a 30% chance of developing within 48 hours and a 40% chance over the next seven days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Sunday if needed.

Only one named storm has formed during the Atlantic hurricane season. Tropical Storm Arthur brought heavy flooding to Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia in June.

Colorado State University recently lowered its seasonal forecast to nine named storms, including four hurricanes and one major hurricane, citing a strengthening El Niño that is expected to suppress storm development.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is also predicting a below-normal season, with eight to 14 named storms, including three to six hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes.