Gulf depression forecast to become tropical storm

Tropical Depression Two remains below tropical storm strength in the eastern Gulf, but it is forecast to strengthen on Tuesday as it moves slowly toward the northern Gulf Coast.

The depression has maximum sustained winds of about 35 miles per hour as of 4 p.m. CDT Monday, unchanged from the morning. It is moving slowly toward the northwest at about 3 miles per hour.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said the depression became better organized during the day, with a more defined circulation and increased thunderstorms near its center. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft, however, showed that its winds remain below tropical storm strength.

The system is forecast to move slowly toward the northwest or west-northwest through early Wednesday before turning west. Its center is expected to move near or along the northern Gulf Coast, but forecast models disagree on how close it will come to land.

Some models take the depression inland along the northern Gulf Coast, while others keep its center farther offshore.

The depression is expected to become a tropical storm as bursts of thunderstorms develop near and south of its center. Forecasters predict peak winds of about 50 miles per hour within 36 hours.

Strong northeasterly wind shear is then expected to disrupt the system, ending further strengthening and causing it to weaken. The depression could become a remnant low within five days or dissipate sooner because of wind shear and interaction with land.

The wind shear is also expected to give the system an uneven structure, with most of its rain and wind occurring south of the center. Outer bands could bring tropical storm conditions to parts of the Florida Panhandle beginning Monday night.