Erin forecast to become 1st major hurricane of 2025 Atlantic season

Tropical Storm Erin is moving west across the eastern Atlantic Ocean and is forecast to become the first major hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season later this week, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

As of 5 p.m. ET on Monday, Erin was centered about 345 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. The storm is moving west at 21 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and higher gusts, according to the NHC.

Forecasters said Erin’s structure indicates it is contending with dry air, which has limited deep convection near its center. However, low wind shear and warmer waters along its projected path could allow the system to gradually intensify over the next 48 hours and strengthen more rapidly afterward.

The NHC forecast calls for Erin to become a hurricane by early Thursday and a major hurricane by Saturday.

Erin is expected to continue moving west through midweek before gradually turning northwest over the weekend as the ridge steering the storm weakens and shifts northeast.

The NHC noted that while the forecast models are in general agreement on this track, uncertainty increases later in the period.

The NHC said that it is too early to determine whether Erin will affect the northern Leeward Islands, Bermuda, or the U.S. East Coast. Meteorologists are advising residents in those areas to review their hurricane preparedness plans as the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season approaches.