Tropical depression forms in Gulf, expected to strengthen

Tropical Depression Two has formed in the eastern Gulf and is forecast to become a tropical storm near the Florida Panhandle. Tropical storm conditions could begin late Monday, with flash flooding possible across parts of the Gulf Coast.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) classified the system as a tropical depression Sunday after it developed a well-defined circulation and persistent thunderstorms near its center.

The depression had maximum sustained winds of about 30 miles per hour as of 4 p.m. CDT. It remains large and somewhat diffuse, with showers covering much of the eastern Gulf.

The intensity forecast remains uncertain because of the system’s broad structure, nearby dry air, wind shear and possible interaction with land. Forecast models range from the system remaining a tropical depression to becoming a hurricane.

The system briefly drifted southeast because of weak steering currents. Forecasters expect it to begin moving northwest before turning west or west-northwest Tuesday.

That track would take the system along or just offshore of the northern Gulf Coast during the middle and latter parts of the week.

The depression is expected to become a tropical storm Monday while offshore of the Florida Panhandle, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas have also been told to monitor the system because additional watches may be required.

Flash flooding will be possible through Thursday from western Florida through southern Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana.

Only one named storm has formed during the Atlantic hurricane season. Tropical Storm Arthur brought heavy flooding to Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia in June.

Colorado State University and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are predicting a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, citing a strengthening El Niño that is expected to suppress storm development.