Colorado State forecasts below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season

Colorado State University is forecasting a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, calling for 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. The outlook also projects below-average odds of a major hurricane making landfall in the United States and the Caribbean.

The forecast, released Thursday, says current weak La Niña conditions are expected to transition to El Niño in the coming months, with the potential for a moderate to strong El Niño during the peak of hurricane season.

CSU said it expects El Niño to be the dominant factor this year, increasing vertical wind shear over the tropical Atlantic and making conditions less favorable for storm development.

Colorado State also forecasts 90 units of accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE, a measure used to estimate the combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes over a season. That is below the 1991-2020 average of 123.

The university said its forecast is based on information available through March and indicates activity somewhat below the 1991-2020 average. Average seasons produce 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes and 3.2 major hurricanes, which are Category 3, 4 or 5 storms.

CSU put the probability of at least one major hurricane making landfall anywhere along the continental U.S. coastline at 32%, below the historical average of 43%.

It gave the U.S. East Coast, including peninsula Florida, a 15% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane landfall, compared with a historical average of 21%. For the Gulf Coast, from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville, Texas, the forecast gives a 20% chance, below the historical average of 27%.

The forecast also gives a 35% chance of at least one major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean, compared with a historical average of 47%.

CSU warned that even a below-normal season can still produce destructive landfalls. “It only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season,” the university said.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30. NOAA, which issues the U.S. government’s official seasonal outlook, is scheduled to release its separate forecast in May.