NASA increases Earth impact probability for asteroid 2024 YR4 to 2.6%

Asteroid 2024 YR4 now has a 2.6% chance of impacting Earth in 2032, according to a new analysis from NASA, up from 2.2% in their last assessment.

2024 YR4 was discovered in late December and is estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet (40 to 90 meters) in diameter, according to the International Astronomical Center.

As of Monday, NASA estimates a 2.6% chance of the asteroid impacting Earth in 2032—equivalent to odds of 1 in 38. The probability has increased from 2.2% (1 in 48 odds) in the previous week’s assessment.

Due to its size and greater-than-1% impact probability, 2024 YR4 is rated at Torino Scale level 3—the second-highest rating an asteroid has ever received on the scale.

A level 3 rating on the Torino Scale indicates “a close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction,” according to NASA. If it impacts Earth, blast damage could extend up to 31 miles (50 km) from the impact site, according to the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN).

The 2.6% probability is just shy of the 2.7% probability that asteroid 99942 Apophis—the highest-rated asteroid on the Torino Scale at level 4—had in 2004 before being downgraded.

The James Webb Space Telescope will be used to further investigate 2024 YR4, providing a more accurate estimate of its size and assessing potential risks based on its dimensions, the European Space Agency announced last week.