Tropical wave heads toward Mexico or Texas with low chance of strengthening

A tropical wave over the Yucatan Peninsula, designated as Invest 98L, is expected to move toward northeastern Mexico or the Texas coast, but has a low chance of strengthening, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

The disturbance is moving west-northwest and is expected to cross the Yucatan peninsula Wednesday night without significant organization. Some development is possible once it moves into the southwestern Gulf on Thursday, with the system tracking northwest at 10 to 15 mph, according to the NHC.

Forecast models show possible paths toward northeastern Mexico or the Texas coastline before landfall late Friday. The NHC gives it a low chance of development over the next 48 hours and seven days.

In the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Erin is about 1,200 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands and moving west at around 17 mph. The storm has maximum sustained winds of 52 mph and is expected to strengthen, possibly becoming a hurricane by Friday.

On its current track, Erin’s center will likely pass near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend, potentially bringing tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rain, high surf, and rip currents to parts of the northern Leewards, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.