1st tropical activity of Atlantic hurricane season being monitored in Gulf

The first tropical activity of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is being monitored in the southwestern Gulf, where a weak system could form near eastern Mexico later this week, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

The area being watched is the Bay of Campeche, a body of water along the southern Gulf coast near Mexico’s Veracruz, Tabasco and Campeche states. Forecasters said a broad area of low pressure could form there from a westward-moving tropical wave.

Conditions are not expected to be favorable for significant development, and the system is expected to move inland over eastern Mexico late this weekend.

The NHC gave the system a near-zero chance of formation through the next 48 hours and a 10 percent chance of formation through the next seven days. No major tropical system is expected at this time.

The outlook marks the first area being monitored by the NHC since the Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1. The season runs through November 30.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season this year, with forecasters calling for 8 to 14 named storms. Of those, 3 to 6 are forecast to become hurricanes, including 1 to 3 major hurricanes.

An average Atlantic season produces 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. NOAA said the season is expected to be less active than normal because El Niño is forecast to develop and strengthen during the hurricane season, increasing wind shear over the Atlantic and making it harder for storms to form.