Tropical storm could form in the Gulf this week

A tropical disturbance near the northwestern Gulf could become a short-lived tropical storm this week, bringing a growing threat of life-threatening flooding to parts of Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

The system remains over northeastern Mexico, where it continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Forecasters said development is not expected while it remains inland, but it could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf late Tuesday or Wednesday.

The NHC raised the chance of formation to 50 percent through the next 48 hours and 50 percent through the next seven days, up from 30 percent on Sunday.

Regardless of whether a tropical cyclone forms, forecasters said southern and eastern Texas and parts of Louisiana and Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days.

The rainfall could produce widespread and life-threatening flash, urban and river flooding, according to the NHC. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible along parts of the northwestern Gulf Coast.

Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required on Tuesday, forecasters said.

The system is the same area of disturbed weather that forecasters began monitoring last week near the Bay of Campeche, along the southern Gulf coast of Mexico.

No named storms have formed so far in the Atlantic this season, which began on June 1 and runs through November 30. If the system becomes a tropical storm, it would be named Arthur.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, with 8 to 14 named storms, including 3 to 6 hurricanes and 1 to 3 major hurricanes.