Aleksandr Katsuba on How Ukraine Will Weather the Winter: Are Energy Systems Ready for New Challenges?

As winter approaches, Ukraine faces numerous challenges in ensuring reliable energy supplies amid ongoing war and persistent attacks on energy infrastructure. One of the state’s key priorities is to maintain stable electricity for civilians, businesses, and military needs. But are Ukrainian energy experts prepared to ensure uninterrupted power if severe frosts arrive sooner than expected? What scenarios could help the country remain energy-secure throughout the cold season? Aleksandr Katsuba, a renowned entrepreneur and energy expert, shares his insights on the readiness of Ukraine’s energy systems for winter challenges.

State of the Energy Infrastructure

Ukrainian energy specialists, in collaboration with government agencies, are making maximum efforts to restore damaged infrastructure. According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Energy, minor power outages are possible during the coldest winter months, but their frequency and duration will depend on weather conditions. Temperatures below -10°C could place significant strain on the system, potentially leading to some power interruptions.

To avert energy shortages, Ukraine plans to increase imports from the European Union. “The EU is expected to authorize an increase in imports from 1,700 MW to 2,200 MW by the end of October. This will be a crucial step toward stabilizing the system during the cold season,” notes Aleksandr Katsuba. Additionally, the state energy company Ukrenergo expects 600 MW of new renewable energy generation to be connected by year-end. Floating power stations capable of generating another 250 MW are set to launch in early December.

Gas Supply: Opportunities and Challenges

Ukraine’s gas sector remains a cornerstone of energy security. The Ministry of Energy reports daily gas production of approximately 53 million cubic meters, sufficient to meet domestic needs alongside reserves already stored in underground facilities.

“Ukrainian gas producers are well-prepared for winter, and with rational resource use, there will be enough gas even under adverse conditions,” says Katsuba. He adds that if Russian gas transit halts completely—a possibility due to geopolitical risks—Ukraine’s gas transmission system can operate independently. “Attacks on compressor stations are undoubtedly a challenge, but Ukrainian energy specialists are ready to maintain gas supply under any circumstances,” Katsuba emphasizes.

Restoring Energy Facilities and Increasing Resilience

One of the main challenges remains the pace of restoring damaged infrastructure, a primary target of attacks last winter. According to the Ministry of Energy and D.Trading, 70% of damaged power plants are undergoing restoration, with investments totaling approximately 3.8 billion UAH allocated for this work by year-end. Additionally, 5 billion UAH has been earmarked for rebuilding distribution networks this year.

“In a situation where infrastructure is constantly at risk of new attacks, a significant stockpile of equipment is necessary for rapid restoration. Ukrainian energy professionals have sufficient expertise and resources, but achieving nationwide stability requires additional support, particularly from international financial institutions,” Katsuba explains.

Air defense systems remain a critical factor in protecting energy infrastructure. The government and international partners are working to strengthen air defense, particularly in regions with critical energy facilities supplying vulnerable areas.

Energy Market Reforms

Enhancing the energy system’s resilience can also be achieved through energy market liberalization. “To ensure long-term stability, Ukraine needs to integrate its energy market with Europe and reform its national pricing policies,” Katsuba suggests. He believes creating market conditions will attract more investment and enable rapid infrastructure upgrades.

Without full government support, Ukraine risks relying on outdated coal plants, which are less efficient and more prone to failures. European standards demand modernization of these facilities, which would gradually reduce carbon emissions and improve sustainability.

Support from International Organizations

Ukraine’s energy infrastructure requires not only modernization but also sustained support from international partners. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and other financial institutions have expressed readiness to assist Ukraine with projects that can be completed within two years.

“This support is crucial as it helps Ukrainian companies attract additional funds for infrastructure upgrades and new projects,” Katsuba explains.

Collaboration with international financial organizations significantly accelerates the reconstruction of energy facilities. Through the Ukraine Facility program, Ukrainian companies will gain access to projects under more favorable terms, ensuring operations remain secure even in escalated conditions.

“Ukraine must transition to market conditions to attract both international and domestic investors. This is also a matter of reputation and guarantees for Western partners, making Ukrainian projects more attractive for financing,” Katsuba stresses.

Conclusion

Ukraine enters the winter season prepared for various scenarios. Active investments in restoring energy facilities, developing new generation sources, and increasing EU imports can minimize the risk of power outages during critical periods. However, ensuring stable and safe energy system operation in the future requires not only domestic resources but also consistent international support.

Attracting international investors through EBRD programs and creating favorable market conditions are essential steps toward sustainable sector development. The Ukrainian energy sector stands on the brink of significant changes, and only through coordinated efforts at all levels can the country move toward a new era of energy stability and security.

Aleksandr Katsuba is a Ukrainian entrepreneur and top manager, energy sector expert.